The MH17 13 October verdict, DSB versus Almaz-Antei

MH17_introduction

The crash of flight MH17 in July 2014 was of crucial importance in the series of events that ignited the tensions between the West and Russia even further, leading to Cold War 2.0. October the 13th the Dutch Safety Board, commissioned to investigate the cause of this crash, issued their report. Political guidance was attached too. At the same day Russian BUK manufacturer Almaz-Antei showed competitive findings. When these were used to review the DSB report, it followed the results of the official investigators were not as conclusive as was claimed they were. Biggest losers were Ukraine, US and the pro-NATO “citizen investigators” of Bellingcat

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Writing a crime play (And showing SBU MH17 taps are frauds)

Deception

With some theoretical groundwork done it´s easy to detect deceptive messages. Its even possible to write your own detective or crime play for that matter. Doing this, and adding some research to it, one could arrive at an interesting conclusion about the first evidence the Ukrainian secret service issued publically after MH17 crashed, evidence that purported the now most cited opinion concerning the cause of the crash.

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The trail that wasn´t a launch plume: a reconstruction

One of the detected irregularities. The enhanced versions of photo 1 and 2, show the dark smoke perfectly curling up into the white plume. According to Bellingcat this feature showed the first stage exhaust of a BUK launch. When the second picture is moved to fit the trail of the first one, it is seen the white smoke doesn´t change in shap, i.e. seems to be immune for wind shear effects.

One of the detected irregularities. The enhanced versions of the two published photos of the alleged BUK launch trail, showing dark smoke curling up into a white plume. According to Bellingcat this feature showed the first stage exhaust of a BUK launch. When the second picture is moved to fit the trail of the first one, it is obvious the white smoke doesn´t change in shape, i.e. seems to be immune for wind shear effects.

A BUK launch contrail, 10 severe problems and ever changing testimonies. Reconstruction of the story of the only evidence supporting the narrative the Eastern Ukrainian rebels and their Russian helpers launched a BUK to take down flight MH17.

UPDATE JULY 2016

An update by Micha Kobs from July 2016 completes the story. After pressure the photographer gave in and handed over the metadata of photos he made of the smoke coming from the burning remains of the plane. With this the actual windspeed on site could be calculated, which was a condition for calculations to verify the distance the alleged launch plume travelled.

With this Kobs showed the launch plume could NOT have originated from the alleged field. Actually the launchspot must have been located right in the backyard of some people in Pervomais’ke village. See this PDF’s:

THE IMPOSSIBLE LAUNCH SPOT

THE IMPOSSIBLE LAUNCH SPOT pt2

For the entire story and its developments towards this final debunk, you can read the article and report attached.

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An Alternative Track Trail: Another BUK, Another Day

¨The most important scenario¨, according to the Joint Investigation Team´s call-for-witnesses: the ¨track-a-trail¨ narrative.

¨The most important scenario¨, according to the Joint Investigation Team´s call-for-witnesses: the ¨track-a-trail¨ narrative.

It seems pro-Kiev investigators and crowdsourcers choose to suffer from a ¨tunnelvision¨. Actually, it is really not that hard to come up with a completely different story regarding their 17th July ¨track-a-trail¨ narrative, based on the same evidence they are using to blame the separatists for downing MH17.

UPDATE 6 December 2016

Until this day I still support the idea the Buk track-a-trail evidence through the Donbass is a narrative that raises a lot of red flags. Nonetheless, because this alleged evidence is there, we have to deal with it one way or the other. One could, for example, suppose the images and videos have all been faked, as Sergey Mastepanov proved they could have been in studies in which he remade the existing visual evidence of the Buk transport with his own hands (see here and here).

Another way to use the imagery and supporting evidence available to attack the weakness of the standing narrative is by thinking about alternative scenarios in which these pieces of the puzzle also could fit, although telling another story. I tried to do this in this blogpost from May 2015 by assuming that – although the photos and videos of the Buk transport were real (for an important part) – they were not made on the day of the shooting nor showed the murder Buk.

With this method I tried to show foremost how organizations like Bellingcat work. They don’t evaluate the information, as they work from cherry picking unclear, unspecified, undated information from unknown sources that seems suitable to build a desired narrative around.

However, more visual “evidence” of the trail surfaced when time passed by, always solving an important question about the trail. The Makeevka satellite imagery supported the Makeevka video of a Buk transport (both released in the beginning of May 2016, 22 months after the crash). These two new pieces of evidence (though not included in an animation the JIT showed of the alleged Buk trail) bolstered the meager evidence of the start of the 17.7 trail in Donetsk.

The new Torez video, released by the Dutch police after the 28.9.2016 JIT presser, showed the important right side of the Buk, with clearer visibility than all other imagery before, ready to be used in a matching process to link a Russian delivered Buk to the alleged Buk that was responsable for downing MH17.

Anyway, somehow an alternative scenario has to deal with all this.

Also other information was made available, e.g. by reports and website from which could be derived (in general terms) what had happened to the ATO Buk units from air-force bases in contested area and which Buk could have been used by rebels to move around the Donbass to account fo the imagery published.

At the bottom of this article there is an update in which I will test the hypothesis brought here, with more information about the ATO Buks whereabouts and possible candidates that could have been trailed through the Donbass earlier than July 17th.

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Did the Ukrainians shoot down flight MH17?

sbu

In the mainstream media there never was any competition between theories about the causes of the disaster with flight MH17 of Malaysian Airways . The official story claims ¨separatists¨ made a fatal mistake. Nevertheless there are some serious leads that point to Ukrainian involvement. Ironically it is the Ukrainian secret service itself that puts us on track.

 Updated with more information: 24.11.2016
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